Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 17.685595 20.590717 23.772321 27.508445 31.768361 36.466748 42.033630
2024-10-20 12.446907 16.279540 20.922632 26.928437 34.454355 43.533234 55.270668
2024-10-27 9.091258 13.069621 18.296351 25.593334 35.431705 48.139006 65.678303
2024-11-03 7.867398 12.204385 18.282848 27.293856 40.152625 57.651767 83.030072
2024-11-10 7.120485 11.793367 18.714376 29.507746 45.657092 68.603236 103.256146
2024-11-17 6.068054 10.699945 17.929488 29.754030 48.243478 75.580626 118.422294
2024-11-24 5.098864 9.545251 16.839021 29.314489 49.638461 80.811255 131.349485
2024-12-01 4.243526 8.417960 15.601086 28.422683 50.135905 84.605118 142.280677
2024-12-08 3.680549 7.702357 14.933141 28.350231 51.880105 90.401557 156.694616
2024-12-15 3.250807 7.156149 14.473123 28.550370 54.049942 96.995492 172.826482
2024-12-22 2.654709 6.175845 13.074754 26.874714 52.751196 97.661454 179.142351
2024-12-29 2.440314 5.939715 13.050158 27.727696 56.023466 106.323615 199.568425
2025-01-05 2.277267 5.812096 13.272353 29.181965 60.740888 118.235114 227.179155
2025-01-12 1.938369 5.232204 12.500458 28.600183 61.608202 123.463041 243.648465
2025-01-19 1.589534 4.552798 11.405021 27.195888 60.695860 125.320084 254.150922
2025-01-26 1.519296 4.547672 11.796676 28.993447 66.394681 140.075496 289.702435
2025-02-02 1.486189 4.632098 12.403665 31.331551 73.432016 157.949257 332.446354
2025-02-09 1.330745 4.353729 12.107858 31.591623 76.090493 167.421745 359.671732
2025-02-16 1.157917 3.987001 11.535335 31.127574 77.115356 173.676250 381.004556
2025-02-23 0.987627 3.586302 10.807768 30.185913 76.957372 177.457207 397.606019
2025-03-02 0.877202 3.343211 10.452752 30.109404 78.748932 185.428072 423.288768
2025-03-09 0.791106 3.157888 10.224151 30.320748 81.225795 195.036028 453.020748
2025-03-16 0.649401 2.746963 9.287866 28.551038 78.767498 193.702117 459.526702